StatSystems Sports NFL Report, Thursday 12/16/10
STAN THE MAN'S STAT/SYSTEMS REPORT 12/16
NATIONAL FOOTBALL LEAGUE
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*** SANS PLAYOFFS! ***
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As disappointing and inconsistent as San Diego and San Francisco have been, the Chargers and 49ers are only one-game out of first place in their divisions. The two hard-to-figure-out teams meet at San Diego’s Qualcomm Stadium Thursday night in a non-conference matchup that presents multiple handicapping quandaries. Coming into the year both the San Diego Chargers and San Francisco 49ers were expected to win their respective divisions. With just three weeks remaining in the regular season, one has to wonder if either will even make the playoffs.
San Diego trails Kansas City by one game following last week's 31-0 demolition of the Chiefs and will likely need to win out, which may not be a problem as they are nine-point favorites this week and have lost only one of their last 20 December games. For 5-8 San Francisco, they should thank their lucky stars that they play in the NFC West as they too are just one game out of first place.
The 49ers have been on a nice underdog run, going 9-2-2 ATS in the last 13 games as the underdog, including a 6-2-2 ATS mark as a road dog. The Chargers, however, have been extremely impressive as a home favorite. They are 22-6 as a home favorite of 3.5-10 points in their last 28 games in that situation. The total opened at 44.5 and had seen very little movement as of Wednesday afternoon. Disciplined shoppers probably can find a 45 out there by kickoff, which is a significant number.
The Chargers are scoring 27.2 and allowing 19.5 points per game. The 49ers are scoring 18.7 and allowing 21.5 points per game. Weather shouldn’t be a factor, with temperatures in the mid-50s and only a slight chance of precipitation. The teams have not met since San Diego’s 48-19 win over the Niners in 2006.
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••••• STAN THE MAN CONTINUES TO ROLL! •••••
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Stan 'The Man has Turned-Up the Heat on the Gridiron with his RED~HOT 65-22-4, (74.7%) ATS Run, along with his impressive 132-56-2 (70.2%) mark for the season, in MLB action! But most Importantly, Yours Truly has delivered the cash in Forty-One of the last Forty-Four, and in Seventy-Five of the last Seventy-Nine Weeks, Dating back to Last Season!
Fresh off a Spectacular 6-2, (75.0%) Performance Last Week Past, (and once again thanks to all that signed-up) Stan released to all that called, his *4-Star 'MNF Dynamite Super Situational Play' with New England (-2.5, 1rst Half), that was supported by an Amazing Winning Angle inside the game.
--PLAY ON - Favorites vs. the 1rst half line - an excellent offensive team (>=27 PPG) against a good defensive team (14-18 PPG) after 8+ games, after a win by 21 or more points. ATS W-L Record 24-5 (82.8% +18.5 units) Since 1983.
--Result: The New England Patriots made a statement Monday night, pummeling the New York Jets, 45-3, to seize control of the AFC East in impressive fashion. Both teams drove into field goal range on their opening drives. New England's Shayne Graham had enough leg for a 41-yarder through a bitter wind 4:03 in, while Nick Folk missed wildly on a 53-yard try a little later.
Folk scored the visitors' only points early in the second quarter on a 39-yard field goal, capping an eight-play, 46-yard drive. It stayed 24-3 at the break, and the Jets had a promising march thwarted when Brandon Spikes picked off Sanchez in the red zone early in the third.
After taking most of the week off, “The Man Continued to Sizzle with his 'ROCK~SOLID' Roll in NBA Action on Friday, dishing out yet another Huge Top *5-Star Winner (San Antonio -8.5) that was back by this ‘Incredible Super Situational System’ - PLAY ON: Favorites of 3.5 to 9.5 points - off 2 consecutive home wins by 10 points or more against opponent off a home win scoring 110 or more points. ATS W-L Record 25-4 (86.2%, +20.6 units) Since 1996.
--Result: Richard Jefferson scored 18 points and hit three straight three-point shots in a fourth-quarter display, leading the red-hot San Antonio Spurs to a 108-92 victory over the Atlanta Hawks. Jefferson went 6-of-8 from the field and 5-of-6 from long distance for the Spurs, who have won 18 of their last 20 games to improve to an NBA-best 19-3. With the win, it extended Stan's season record on the NBA hardwood to 20-3, (86.9%) with his last twenty-three top rated selections.
Wrapping up the week Sunday, which saw us here at Stat/Systems Sports go 4-1, (80.0%) overall, we got the ball rolling in Charlotte, NC with Atlanta (-4.5 1rst Half). Michael Turner ran for three touchdowns and the Atlanta Falcons continued their quest for the top seed in the NFC with a 31-10 victory over the lowly Carolina Panthers at Bank of America Stadium.
Trailing 17-0 after Matt Bryant made a 39-yard field goal in the second frame, Carolina, which totaled only 33 yards and two first downs through the first half, reached the end zone on its opening possession of the third quarter. Goodson capped the five-play, 81-yard drive with a 13-yard dash.
Stan 'The Man didn't Stop There - As he came right back with another Huge Top *5-Star (Miami/NY Jets Under 19.5 1rst Half) 'Totally Incredible Situational' Winner, Improving his NFL mark to 26-9-2, (74.2%) on the 2010 season.
- PLAY UNDER: Any team where the first half total is between 18 and 21 - team outrushing opponents by 60+ YPG against an average rushing team (+/- 30 RY/G) after 8+ games, after gaining 150 or more rushing yards in 2 straight games. W-L Record 25-5 Since 1983, (83.3%, +19.5 units).
--Result: Chad Henne found Brandon Marshall for the game's only touchdown in the first quarter, and the Dolphins pulled out a gritty 10-6 win over the New York Jets in rainy conditions at New Meadowlands Stadium. The Dolphins were out gained in yards, 280-131, but took advantage of two Mark Sanchez turnovers in the opening quarter to come away with their third straight road win against their AFC East rival.
Stan and the staff here at Stat/Systems Sports would like to take the time to thank every one for your kind and wonderful E-Mails: •I've been a Stat/Systems Sports member for close to 3 months now and I just wanted to comment on how tremendous your service has been... Keep up the great work you all have been doing, your daily report is incredibly helpful. Continued success, ~ Mike - Greenwich, CT
•I have been a subscriber for less than a month, but I am totally impressed with your Stat/Systems Report. The total amount of information is incredible. I have been focusing on your *5-Star Super Situational Systems which I have found to be exceptional on totals. I will be a subscriber as long as I am playing. ~ Fred Ravo, Baltimore, MD
As always, the best way to take advantage of Stan 'The Man's Sharp Information found each and every day right here in his Stat/Systems Report is to join for a Week or Month, so that you get every single one of his plays, including all of his Late Information releases. “Do it now and Save Big, subscribe today! - Call me toll-free in the office @ 1-800-351-4640 - You'll be real glad you did" -Stan!
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*** THURSDAY NIGHT FOOTBALL ***
SAN FRANCISCO (5-8) @ SAN DIEGO (7-6)
Kickoff, 8:20 p.m. EDT Line: Chargers -9 O/U 44.5
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The San Diego Chargers have made strong late-season finishes an art form in recent years, while the San Francisco 49ers are beginning to earn a reputation as a team that does its best work over the second half as well. The two also share a similar predicament heading into a Thursday night interconference clash at San Diego's Qualcomm Stadium, with the loser of this Week 15 tilt likely faced with a major uphill climb in regards to making the playoffs.
Both the Chargers and 49ers presently sit one game out of first place in their respective divisions entering Thursday's matchup, with each team digging itself into a sizeable hole it's yet to completely crawl out of. San Diego has turned it on following a thoroughly disappointing 2-5 beginning to the season, having recorded victories in five of its last six contests, while San Francisco rebounded from a dreadful 0-5 start by winning five of eight games since.
The Chargers closed the gap on front-running Kansas City in the AFC West with an authoritative 31-0 home triumph over the short-handed Chiefs a week ago, in which their top-ranked defense yielded a paltry 67 total yards and five first downs in a suffocating display. The five first downs tied a franchise record for the least allowed in a single game, while the yardage total was the second- fewest in club history. The resounding result improved San Diego to a sparkling 19-1 in December games since 2006, with the lone blemish a startling 28-13 loss to visiting Oakland in Week 13.
With road dates at doormats Cincinnati and Denver only left on the regular- season slate, the Chargers should have an opportunity to claim a fifth consecutive AFC West title if they can get past the resurgent 49ers and the Chiefs lose one of their three remaining games. San Diego would edge Kansas City in a tie-breaker if the rivals wind up deadlocked and it wins out by virtue of a superior conference record. The Chiefs will visit St. Louis this weekend before closing out with home tests against Tennessee and Oakland, none of whom presently own a positive record.
San Francisco also gained some ground in the NFC West race this past Sunday after throttling skidding Seattle by a 40-21 score at Candlestick Park. With St. Louis also suffering a loss in Week 13, the Niners now have only one fewer win than the Seahawks and Rams in the battle for the division's top spot and travel to St. Louis for a high-stakes showdown following Thursday's bout.
A quarterback change and a submissive Seattle defense enabled San Francisco, one of the league's lowest-scoring teams this year, to register its highest point output of the season. In his first action since Oct. 24, former No. 1 overall pick Alex Smith delivered one of the best performances of his checkered career, throwing for 255 yards and three touchdowns without an interception on 17-for-27 passing. Smith will try to build off that impressive showing and attempt to direct San Francisco to back-to-back wins for the first time in 2010. Prevailing on the road has been a problem for the Niners, though, as they'll be heading into Qualcomm Stadium with a 1-5 ledger as the guest this season. The Chargers sport a 5-2 mark at home, with four of those victories coming by a margin of 21 points or greater.
• SERIES HISTORY
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The 49ers own a 6-5 advantage in their all-time regular-season series with the Chargers, but have lost each of their last two meetings with San Diego. The Bolts routed the Niners, 48-19, when the teams last met, at Candlestick Park in 2006. The Chargers took a 20-17 overtime decision when the teams last squared off in San Diego, in 2002. San Francisco's last win in the series came in 2000 on the road.
In addition to the regular-season series, the teams have met once in the postseason, a 49-26 Niners rout in Super Bowl XXIX from Miami. Chargers head coach Norv Turner, was offensive coordinator with the 49ers in 2006, is 1-3 in his career against San Francisco, with all of those meetings coming during his tenure with the Washington Redskins from 1994-2000. The Niners' Mike Singletary will be meeting both Turner and the Chargers for the first time as a head coach.
• WHEN THE 49ERS HAVE THE BALL
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San Francisco had been a run-first offense built around the considerable talents of versatile back Frank Gore for most of this year, but the season- ending fractured hip the two-time Pro Bowler sustained in a Week 12 win at Arizona has caused a slight shift in philosophy. The injury helps explain Singletary's decision to re-insert Smith (1809 passing yards, 12 TD, 9 INT), a more polished passer than counterpart Troy Smith (1023 passing yards, 4 TD, 3 INT), into a starting role prior to the Seattle game, and the move has certainly paid off in the short term.
Alex Smith connected with both tight end Vernon Davis (49 receptions, 6 TD) and running back Brian Westbrook (199 rushing yards, 11 receptions, 2 total TD) on long touchdown throws last week while also developing a rapport with Josh Morgan (32 receptions, 2 TD), with the young wideout compiling a season-high 82 receiving yards and a score on three catches in the wake of the switch. Replacing Gore's running skills has been tough, as the brittle Westbrook and rookie Anthony Dixon (165 rushing yards, 2 TD) have combined for only 147 yards in two games since the Niners' top back went down. Dixon received the bulk of the carries against the Seahawks, while Westbrook contributed a team best of six catches and 87 receiving yards.
Alex Smith figures to draw a tougher assignment than last Sunday's task, as the Chargers have permitted league-lows of 265.0 total yards and 173.4 passing yards per game and are tied for third in the NFL with 38 sacks, a concern for a San Francisco offensive line that will again be without stalwart left tackle Joe Staley (fractured fibula). Shaun Phillips (46 tackles, 10 sacks, 1 INT) has been a pass-rushing terror from his outside linebacker spot all year long, with inside starter Kevin Burnett (75 tackles, 5 sacks, 2 INT) and nose tackle Antonio Garay (41 tackles, 4 sacks) lending a strong push from the interior.
The front seven has been backed up from solid play from cornerbacks Antoine Cason (57 tackles, 4 INT, 16 PD) and Quentin Jammer (35 tackles, 1 INT, 10 PD), while Burnett and fellow inside linebacker Brandon Siler (32 tackles, 1 sack, 1 INT) head up a group that's surrendering just 91.6 rushing yards per contest (4th overall) and limited Kansas City's potent ground attack to 48 yards last week. Siler enters Thursday's test as a question mark, though, after aggravating a rib injury against the Chiefs.
• WHEN THE CHARGERS HAVE THE BALL
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San Diego's been excellent on this side of the ball as well, possessing a dangerous offense that ranks second in the NFL in total yards (399.6 ypg) and passing yards (286.2 ypg) and is scoring at a stellar 30.1 points per game clip at home. The undeniable catalyst has been quarterback Philip Rivers (3868 passing yards, 26 TD, 11 INT), a fiery leader who's been both accurate (66.1 percent completion rate) and tough during an All-Pro caliber campaign, and the standout signal-caller gets ample support from a good collection of pass- catchers that may or may not include leading receiver Antonio Gates (50 receptions, 782 yards, 10 TD) this week. The difference-making tight end has been dealing with a painful plantar fascia tear in his right foot for much of the season and sat out the Kansas City game, and his status for Thursday is very much up in the air.
Rivers will still have plenty of capable options with or without Gates, as two-time 1,000-yard receiver Vincent Jackson and Malcom Floyd (35 receptions, 6 TD) are two big and fast targets on the outside and diminutive running back Darren Sproles (215 rushing yards, 44 receptions, 4 TD) is a terrific open-field runner and an integral part of the passing game. He's one of three quality backs on the roster along with converted fullback Mike Tolbert (691 rushing yards, 10 TD, 25 receptions) and promising rookie Ryan Mathews (447 rushing yards, 3 TD, 16 receptions), a duo which teamed up for 131 rushing yards and two scores in last week's rout of the Chiefs.
Rivers will be airing out against a San Francisco stop unit that's just 23rd in pass efficiency defense this season but came up with four interceptions of Seattle triggerman Matt Hasselbeck on Sunday, with free safety Dashon Goldson (66 tackles, 1 INT) returning one of those picks for a touchdown. The Niners also have the ability to create pressure, as outside linebackers Travis LaBoy (26 tackles, 5 sacks), Ahmad Brooks (22 tackles, 4 sacks) and Parys Haralson (29 tackles, 4 sacks) are all proven pass rushers and end Justin Smith (54 tackles, 5.5 sacks) is an outstanding all-around lineman.
The Niners' best skill is stopping the run, however, with playmaking inside linebacker Patrick Willis (108 tackles, 5 sacks), Smith and sturdy nose tackle Aubrayo Franklin (33 tackles) the headliners of a pack that's allowing a respectable 3.7 yards per rush attempt on the season. Veteran inside linebacker Takeo Spikes (91 tackles, 8 PD) has done his part as well, ranking second on the club in tackles and snaring three interceptions from his post opposite Willis.
• PREGAME NOTES
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The Niners are three games under .500 but just one game back in the NFC West. With the division leaders meeting on the final week of the season – guaranteeing a seventh win for one of them – Singletary’s men don’t have much margin for error. The problem is that tonight’s hosts are riding in the same boat known as ‘Desperation’. The Chargers kept themselves in the AFC West race with a shutout win over the QB-less Chiefs but our Stat/Systems Sports database has a thing about squads in this scenario, noting: teams off a division shutout win in which they beat the spread by 19 or more points are just 6-19 ATS when facing a non-division foe off a SU win.
It also warns us that the Chargers are just 3-9 ATS versus a non-division opponent off a double-digit SU win while the 49ers are 6-1 ATS as dogs of 4 or more points versus AFC opposition. Last week San Fran backers relied on HC Mike Singletary’s terrific ATS record when coming off a loss to bring home the bacon. This week they’ll count on his perfect 7-0 ATS log as a dog versus a foe off a win of 13 or more points to spread the cheer.
*STAN'S FORECASTER - San Diego by 10; O/U 42
*STAN'S POWER LINE - San Diego -11.5
*OUTPLAY FACTOR - San Diego -11.89
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• TOP RATED TEAM ATS TRENDS
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--SAN DIEGO is 53-28 ATS (+22.2 Units) vs. poor passing defenses - allowing a comp. pct. of 61% or worse since 1992.
The average score was SAN DIEGO 24.3, OPPONENT 20.1 - (Rating = 4*)
--SAN DIEGO is 34-14 ATS (+18.6 Units) vs. poor passing defenses - allowing a comp. pct. of 61% or worse in the second half of the season since 1992.
The average score was SAN DIEGO 23.6, OPPONENT 18.5 - (Rating = 3*)
--SAN FRANCISCO is 27-45 ATS (-22.5 Units) in road games after 1 or more consecutive wins against the spread since 1992.
The average score was SAN FRANCISCO 21.2, OPPONENT 26.1 - (Rating = 4*)
--SAN FRANCISCO is 11-27 ATS (-18.7 Units) in road games after a win by 14 or more points since 1992.
The average score was SAN FRANCISCO 22.1, OPPONENT 24.6 - (Rating = 3*)
• TOP RATED TEAM OVER/UNDER TRENDS
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--SAN DIEGO is 48-25 UNDER (+20.3 Units) in home games after gaining 6 or more yards/play in their previous game since 1992.
The average score was SAN DIEGO 23.4, OPPONENT 18.6 - (Rating = 4*)
--SAN FRANCISCO is 33-14 UNDER (+17.4 Units) in road games after having won 2 out of their last 3 games since 1992.
The average score was SAN FRANCISCO 22.9, OPPONENT 19.9 - (Rating = 3*)
• TOP RATED TEAM FIRST HALF TRENDS
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--SAN FRANCISCO is 54-78 against the 1rst half line (-31.8 Units) as an underdog vs. the 1rst half line since 1992.
The average score was SAN FRANCISCO 9.3, OPPONENT 14.8 - (Rating = 5*)
--SAN FRANCISCO is 12-29 against the 1rst half line (-19.8 Units) in road games versus good offensive teams - averaging >=5.65 yards/play since 1992.
The average score was SAN FRANCISCO 10.0, OPPONENT 15.1 - (Rating = 3*)
--SAN FRANCISCO is 6-24 against the 1rst half line (-17.9 Units) versus excellent offensive teams - averaging >=6 yards/play since 1992.
The average score was SAN FRANCISCO 10.4, OPPONENT 16.5 - (Rating = 3*)
• TOP RATED TEAM FIRST HALF OVER/UNDER TRENDS
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--SAN DIEGO is 46-22 OVER (+21.8 Units) the 1rst half total when playing against a bad team (Win Pct. 25% to 40%) since 1992.
The average score was SAN DIEGO 12.9, OPPONENT 11.0 - (Rating = 4*)
--SAN FRANCISCO is 34-13 OVER (+19.7 Units) the 1rst half total vs. poor punt coverage teams, allowing >= 12 yards per return since 1992.
The average score was SAN FRANCISCO 12.3, OPPONENT 12.8 - (Rating = 3*)
--SAN FRANCISCO is 30-11 OVER (+17.9 Units) the 1rst half total versus good defensive teams - allowing <=285 yards/game since 1992.
The average score was SAN FRANCISCO 10.6, OPPONENT 14.9 - (Rating = 3*)
• HIGHEST RATED SUPER SITUATIONS
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--PLAY ON - Favorites vs. the 1rst half line (SAN DIEGO) - a very good team (>=+7 PPG diff.) against an average team (+/- 3 PPG diff.) after 8 or more games, after allowing 3 points or less in the first half last game.
(24-4 over the last 10 seasons.) (85.7%, +19.6 units. Rating = 4*)
The average first half line posted in these games was: Team favored by 2.9
The average first half score in these games was: Team 16.1, Opponent 6.7 (Average first half point differential = +9.4)
The situation's record this season is: (0-0).
Over the last 3 seasons the situation's record is: (6-0).
Over the last 5 seasons the situation's record is: (11-1).
Since 1983 the situation's record is: (60-41).
--PLAY UNDER - Home teams where the total is between 42.5 and 49 points (SAN DIEGO) - after 1 or more consecutive wins against the spread, a marginal winning team (51% to 60%) playing a losing team in the second half of the season.
(25-6 since 1983.) (80.6%, +18.4 units. Rating = 4*)
The average total posted in these games was: 45.1
The average score in these games was: Team 20.7, Opponent 18.1 (Total points scored = 38.8)
The number of games in which this system covered the total by 7 or more points was 15 (50% of all games.)
The situation's record this season is: (2-1).
Over the last 3 seasons the situation's record is: (5-3).
Over the last 5 seasons the situation's record is: (9-3).
Over the last 10 seasons the situation's record is: (14-3).
--PLAY OVER - Home teams against the 1rst half total (SAN DIEGO) - outgaining opponent by 70 or more passing yards/game on the season, after allowing 5.5 or less passing yards per attempt last game.
(50-18 over the last 10 seasons.) (73.5%, +30.2 units. Rating = 3*)
The average first half total posted in these games was: 22.3
The average first half score in these games was: Team 15.2, Opponent 10.5 (Total first half points scored = 25.7)
The situation's record this season is: (7-2).
Over the last 3 seasons the situation's record is: (23-7).
Over the last 5 seasons the situation's record is: (33-15).
Since 1983 the situation's record is: (82-64).
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